B.C.’s health ministry modelling shows the province tracking closer to South Korea than Hubei province and Northern Italy. (B.C. government)

B.C.’s latest COVID-19 modelling shows restrictions flattening curve

‘This is not the end,’ Dr. Bonnie Henry says of success so far

B.C. continues to see encouraging signs in its efforts to stem the spread of the coronavirus causing COVID-19 illness, provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry says.

Henry and Health Minister Adrian Dix released their second batch of case modelling April 17, showing significant improvement from projections released in the initial study in mid-March. The model results show that B.C.’s case rate and actual intensive care unit admission rate tracking closer to South Korea’s success in controlling the spread, and significantly better than Quebec and Ontario in recent weeks.

“Our actual case rates and hospital and ICU admission rates have been far below what could have been based on other jurisdictions’ experience and data,” Henry said. “We are experiencing a slowing in our rate of new diagnosis over the last few days, and a stabilization of the number of cases we have in hospital and ICU.

“And the difference, really between what could have been and what has happened, is because of the collective actions that we have taken across the province to maintain those safe distances and to stop the chains of transmission.”

With the success in keeping down the number of hospitalized cases of the novel coronavirus, the health ministry is preparing to resume scheduling surgeries beyond the most urgent that have been done as the pandemic began. If there is no surge of new severe COVID-19 cases, that could begin by early May.

RELATED: New survey puts Canada’s response in top 15 globally

RELATED: Federal wage subsidy payments coming in early May

RELATED: B.C. COVID-19 data and graphs up to April 15

Henry emphasized that B.C.’s success is due to public health actions taken earlier than Ontario and Quebec, and not due to “herd immunity” being developed in the B.C. population as exposure has spread.

“Now is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end, to quote Churchill,” Henry said. “But it is perhaps somewhere near the end of the beginning of this pandemic, and we’re now planning for our future over the coming months.”


@tomfletcherbc
tfletcher@blackpress.ca

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

BC legislatureCoronavirus

Just Posted

The buoys are back in town

Watershed Wanderings column by Lake Windermere Ambassadors

Invermere council okay with ‘reverse grad march’ idea

Nothing finalized and complications aplenty, but Invermere council agrees to grad march idea

101-year-old man targets 101 block fundraising walk for food bank

A centenarian in Invermere has embarked on a new adventure to raise money for the food bank.

Wings Over the Rockies encourages nature viewing during pandemic

Three local photographers and Wings supporters offer nature viewing tips.

Hospital chief of staff provides guidance on COVID-19 and the Columbia Valley as we open up

Chief of staff says: “COVID-19 … is still here and is not going away any time soon.”

Feds looking at ways to reunite families amid COVID-19 border restrictions with U.S.

Some families with members of dual-citizenship have become separated due to the pandemic

Police watchdog recommends charges against five Mounties in Prince George man’s death

Police used pepper spray on the man, who then had trouble breathing before dying at the scene

B.C. tourism seeks relief as businesses wait for COVID-19 restrictions to ease

Mid-June earliest for more in-province travel to be authorized

VIDEO: Humpback whales put on quite a show

The ‘playful’ pod lingered by a Campbell River tour operator’s boat for quite some time

B.C. woman launches First Nations search, rescue and patrol program

Linda Peters envisions trained searchers ready to go at moment’s notice in each B.C. First Nation

Introducing the West Coast Traveller: A voyage of the mind

Top armchair travel content for Alaska, Yukon, BC, Alberta, Washington, Oregon and California!

Large cruise ships barred from Canadian waters until end of October: Garneau

Last year 140 cruise ships brought more than two million visitors to Canadian ports

Man who bound, murdered Vancouver Island teen still a risk to public: parole board

Kimberly Proctor’s killer is still ‘mismanaging emotions,’ has had ‘temper tantrums’

Getting hitched at historic B.C. gold rush town still on table during COVID-19 pandemic

Micro-weddings, online visits, offered at Barkerville Historic Town and Park

Most Read