The Bank of Canada building is pictured in Ottawa on September 6, 2011. The Bank of Canada is defending itself amid questions about its public silence ahead of an interest-rate increase last week that caught many analysts by surprise. File photo by THE CANADIAN PRESS

Bank of Canada holds interest rate at 1%

Bank of Canada holds rate but sends fresh signals that hikes are on the horizon

The Bank of Canada stuck with its trend-setting interest rate Wednesday, but it offered fresh, yet cautious, warnings to Canadians that increases are likely on the way.

The central bank has now left the rate locked at one per cent for two straight policy announcements after the strengthening economy prompted it to raise it twice in the summer.

In announcing the decision, the bank pointed to several recent positives that could support higher rates in the coming months. They included encouraging job and wage growth, sturdy business investment and the resilience of consumer spending despite higher borrowing costs and Canadians’ heavy debt loads.

On top of that, there’s increasing evidence in the economic data that the benefits from government infrastructure investments have begun to work their way through the economy, the bank said.

But on the other hand, the bank noted exports have slipped more than expected in recent months after a powerful start to the year, although it continues to predict trade growth to pick up due to rising foreign demand.

It also said the international outlook continues to face considerable uncertainty mostly because of geopolitical- and trade-related factors.

“While higher interest rates will likely be required over time, (the bank’s) governing council will continue to be cautious,” the bank said in a statement Wednesday that accompanied its decision.

It will be “guided by incoming data in assessing the economy’s sensitivity to interest rates, the evolution of economic capacity and the dynamics of both wage growth and inflation.”

The bank said inflation, a key factor in its rate decisions, has been slightly higher than anticipated and could stay that way in the short term because of temporary factors like stronger gasoline prices. Core inflation, which measures underlying inflation by omitting volatile items like gas, has continued to inch upwards.

Governor Stephen Poloz raised rates in July and September in response to an impressive economic run that began in late 2016. The hikes took back the two rate cuts he introduced in 2015 to help cushion, and stimulate, the economy from the collapse in oil prices.

From here, the bank must assess how to proceed with the interest rate while taking into consideration that Canadian households have amassed high levels of debt and the presence of still-hot housing markets in areas like Toronto and Vancouver.

Last month, the Bank of Canada flagged the steady climb of household debt and these real estate markets as the financial system’s top vulnerabilities.

The bank’s statement Wednesday said recent economic indicators have been in line with its October forecast, which projected a moderation following the country’s exceptional growth in the first half of 2017.

The document contained a few differences compared with the statement that accompanied its last rate announcement in October.

This time, the bank once again noted the unknowns over the future of trade policy, however, it did not specifically mention the ongoing renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.

Andy Blatchford, The Canadian Press

Like us on Facebook and follow us on Twitter.

Just Posted

Camp Day serves coffee for a cause

Tim Hortons Camp Day Wednesday, June 5th

Living Lakes Canada at global water conference in Spain

Columbia Valley’s Kat Hartwig, executive director attends international forum

RCMP Report

Some of the more interesting callouts for Columbia Valley RCMP this past week

Missing Valley girl still sought

Brenda Byman mysteriously disappeared in 1961

Navigating the ‘wildfire season’

A look to the summer ahead and what experts study when it comes to wildfire predictions

Kelowna toddler suffers cracked skull after fall from balcony

Neighbour who found the two-year-old boy said he has a bump the size of a golf ball on his head

RCMP probe if teen was intentionally hit with ski pole by mystery skier on B.C. mountain

The incident happened on March 20 on Grouse Mountain. Police are urging witnesses to come forward

Support growing for orphaned Okanagan child after father dies in highway crash

Family thanks emergency crews for assistance in traumatic incident

Baby boom seniors putting pressure on B.C. long-term care: report

B.C. leads Canada in growth of dementia, dependence on care

Pipeline protester chimes in on Justin Trudeau’s B.C. fundraising speech

The government purchased the Trans Mountain pipeline and expansion project for $4.5 billion

UPDATED: B.C. man says he’ll take People’s Party lawsuit as far as he can

Federal judge shut down Satinder Dhillon’s ‘nonsensical’ motion to bar use of PPC name in byelection

Canada stripping citizenship from Chinese man over alleged marriage fraud

The move comes amid severely strained relations between Ottawa and Beijing

Nevada court orders former Vancouver man to pay back $21.7M to investors

The commission says Michael Lathigee committed fraud over a decade ago

Most Read